GLOBAL CONTEXT
Throughout the world, countries are experiencing a rise in authoritarianism and democratic backsliding. This democratic erosion is occurring against the backdrop of an increasingly fragmented international order and existential and interconnected threats, including climate change, the AI revolution, and an unprecedented number of armed conflicts.
Electoral gains by authoritarian-populist candidates across the ideological spectrum reflect a growing frustration among people with institutions and ruling elites, and many are turning away from traditional democratic systems. This moment presents both an opportunity and an obligation to reimagine and transform democracy and the movement to promote and protect the concept and ideal around the world, making it more responsive to people’s demands and better equipped to tackle global challenges.
Western governments and philanthropies have long been primary funders and supporters of democratic movements globally. However, their leadership - particularly that of the United States - in advancing a pro-democracy agenda has been increasingly undermined and called into question, due to domestic political challenges, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and diminished credibility in promoting democratic values abroad. This report comes at a critical moment when the United States government has reduced or cut many of its international democracy protection programs, posing a significant threat to this sector. The urgency to invent new strategies for democratic renewal has never been greater.
PROJECT PURPOSE
We undertook this project to better understand whether common causes of democratic erosion exist across the globe, examine potential actions to reverse erosion and protect democracy, ask why these solutions have not been implemented or failed to achieve lasting impact, and explore potential new strategies and in-roads to a path of democratization. Our goal is to suggest strategies for reversing the global decline in democracy through a theory of change that complements, or in some cases replaces, existing largely state-led and Western-led initiatives. A particular focus is the global democracy infrastructure, where we aim to identify gaps, especially in areas that have yet to be explored or where current efforts are falling short, and propose potential solutions. We do not wish to start any new programming, but rather, to shine a light on challenges and opportunities through a comprehensive framework.
“A theory of change is a structured framework that outlines how and why a desired change is expected to happen. It identifies the problem to be addressed, the underlying causes, and the pathways through which interventions or strategies can lead to the intended outcomes. A theory of change typically includes: a problem statement and its root causes; long-term goals (the desired change); key assumptions about how change happens; strategies and interventions needed to achieve the goals (short and medium-term outcomes); indicators of success.”
This report, representing the first stage of a longer term and iterative project, aims to provide project stakeholders with a shared diagnosis of the problem we are seeking to address, outline initial strategies and ideas to counter democratic decline, and propose next steps in developing a theory of change. We do not intend for this report to be final or authoritative, but rather, a conversation-starter that aims to augment potential action in the wide democracy ecosystem at a pivotal moment.
Acknowledgements
We extend our sincere gratitude to all the individuals who contributed their insights, expertise, and feedback to this report. Their thoughtful reflections and generous engagement enriched our understanding of the challenges facing democracy and helped shape the recommendations outlined in this report. In particular, we would like to thank Nabil Ahmed, Joseph Asunka, Saskia Brechenmacher, Rodolfo Córdova, Ken Godfrey, Arzak Khan, Josh Lerner, Briseida Milián, Marina Nord, Willice Onyango, Vukasin Petrovic, Kourtney Pompi, Anthony Smith, Soo Suh, Mandeep Tiwana, Pedro Telles, Violet Tsagka, and Gabriel Wer for their invaluable contributions to this work.
Authors
This report was written by Soheila Comninos, Independent Consultant, (Lead Author) and Scott Warren, Fellow at SNF Agora Institute (Co-author).